USA TODAY
Wednesday, April 5, 2012
U.S. population growth slows, especially in far suburbs Five years ago,
millions of Americans were streaming to new homes on the fringes of
metropolitan areas. Then housing prices collapsed and the Great Recession
slowed growth to levels not seen since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
Growth remained slow last year, and largely confined to counties at the center
of metropolitan areas. Maps show population gain or loss in 2006 and 2011,
based on new Census Bureau estimates.
Source: Census Bureau
America?s romance with sprawl may be over
By Haya El Nasser and Paul Overberg, USA Today
America's romance with sprawl may not be completely over, but it's definitely
on the rocks.
By Roberto E. Rosales, AP
Communities within commuting distance larger cities such as Los Lunas, N.M.,
had been beneficiaries -- or victims -- of urban sprawl. New Census data show
this trend is waning.
EnlargeClose By Roberto E. Rosales, AP
Communities within commuting distance larger cities such as Los Lunas, N.M.,
had been beneficiaries -- or victims -- of urban sprawl. New Census data show
this trend is waning.
Almost three years after the official end of a recession that kept people from
moving and devastated new suburban subdivisions, people continue to avoid
counties on the farthest edge of metropolitan areas, according to Census
estimates out today.
The financial and foreclosure crisis forced more people to rent. Soaring gas
prices made long commutes less appealing. And high unemployment drew more
people to big job centers. As the nation crawls out of the downturn, cities and
older suburbs are leading the way.
Population growth in fringe counties nearly screeched to a halt in the year
that ended July 1, 2011. By comparison, counties at the core of metro areas are
growing faster than the nation as a whole.
"There's a pall being cast on the outer edges," says John McIlwain, senior
fellow for housing at the Urban Land Institute, a non-profit development group
that promotes sustainability. "The foreclosures, the vacancies, the uncompleted
roads. It's uncomfortable out there. The glitz is off."
A USA TODAY analysis shows:
-- All but two of the 39 counties with 1 million-plus people ? Michigan's Wayne
(Detroit) and Ohio's Cuyahoga (Cleveland) ? grew from 2010 to 2011.
-- Twenty-eight of the big counties gained faster than the nation, which grew
at the slowest rate since the Great Depression (0.73%). The counties' median
growth rate was 1.3% (half grew faster, half slower).
-- Those 28 ? including California's Alameda and Contra Costa counties,
Florida's Broward and Hillsborough, Texas' Harris and Dallas ? generated more
than a third of the USA's growth. Before the recession and housing bust, when
people flocked to new development on farmland, they contributed just 27%.
-- "It shows the locational advantage of being in the biggest cities," says
Robert Lang, professor of urban affairs at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas
and author of Megapolitan America. "The core is what's left of our
competitiveness as a country."
-- Central metro counties accounted for 94% of U.S. growth, compared with 85%
just before the recession.
"This could be the end of the exurb as a place where people aspire to go when
they're starting their families," says William Frey, demographer at the
Brookings Institution. "So many people have been burned by this. ? First-time
home buyers, immigrants and minorities took a real big hit."
During the '70s gas shortage and the '80s savings and loan industry crisis,
some predicted the end of suburban sprawl. It didn't happen then, but current
trends could change the nation's growth patterns permanently.
Aging Baby Boomers, who have begun to retire, and Millennials, who are mostly
in their teens and 20s, are more inclined to live in urban areas, McIlwain says.
"I'm not sure we're going to see outward sprawl even if the urge to sprawl
continues," he says. "Counties are getting to the point that they don't have
the money to maintain the roads, water, sewer. ? This is a century of
urbanization."
Maybe, Lang says, "sprawl is the Freddy Krueger of American development. It's
always pronounced dead and yet somehow springs back to life."
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