Columbus, Georgia
Georgia's First Consolidated Government
Post Office Box 1340
Columbus, Georgia, 31902-1340
(706) 653-4013
fax (706) 653-4016
Council Members
MINUTES OF THE
BOARD OF TRUSTEES MEETING OF THE
COLUMBUS GEORGIA EMPLOYEES' PENSION PLAN
September 10, 2003
A meeting of the Board of Trustees for the Columbus Georgia Employees= Pension
Plan was held September 10, 2003 at 2:00 P.M. in the Mayor=s Conference Room.
PRESIDING: Mayor Robert Poydasheff, Chairman
PRESENT: Daniel Gray, Kay G. Love, Harvey Milner, Jack Nowell, Mary
Strozier-Weaver
ABSENT: Carmen Cavezza, Morton Harris, Alan Rothschild, Joe Smith,
Captain John Starkey
GUESTS: Henry Swift, Vice President (Salomon Smith Barney), Denise
Baxter, Investment Officer (CCG), Lisa Lane (CCG)
Mayor Robert Poydasheff, Chairman called the meeting to order. Kay Love on
behalf of Julia Rasch, Recording Secretary, gave the attendance. Mayor
Poydasheff stated that he wanted the record to reflect that Kay Love is
leaving, and in his opinion, there will never be a person as knowledgeable,
capable, and as dedicated. Mayor Poydasheff wished her God speed and Ms. Love
stated that it had been an honor to serve in her capacity.
MINUTES OF THE PREVIOUS MEETING:
The motion was made by Mr. Dan Gray and seconded by Mary Strozier-Weaver that
the minutes from the August 6, 2003 meeting be accepted as submitted. The vote
was unanimous.
INVESTMENT UPDATE:
Mr. Henry Swift stated that the report this month is very good and he would be
brief. He handed out information that included charts on the stock and bond
markets a well as the portfolio valuation as of September 9, 2003.
The first chart is the 30 year treasury bond. The yield on the 30 year
Treasury Bond has been dropping for a long time, over the last two years, and
it finally got down below 4% at the end of June. All of the sudden in late
June, prices started down and yields started going up. As you recall, that
hurt us a little bit in the June quarter ending. It will also hurt us a little
bit more in the quarter ending September 30, 2003. What has happened since the
last meeting on August 5? You can see the 30 year Treasury Bond was priced at
a 5.38% and on September 9 it was priced at 5.22%. Basically, the yield on the
Treasury Bond has come down since our last meeting, which means that bond
prices have gone up a little. You will see this in the report that follows
this chart, that in fact the fixed income managers have increased their value
slightly, about 0.75% over this 30 day period.
The S&P index is the next chart which we use as a barometer for the stock
market. As you can see, we have had a powerful move up in prices since the
10th or 11th day of March. It went sideways from end of May until mid
August. Since the middle of August we have had another strong move up in stock
prices and you can see at our last meeting this index was priced at 965 and on
September 9 (last night) it closed at 1023. We have had a nice 5% to 5.5% move
in the stock market over this one month period. You would expect that we would
have some sort of commensurate return from our equity managers over that same
period of time.
The next page is the valuation report. Mr. Swift noted that the fixed income
managers posted a little better return over this period. The combination of
the three fixed income managers were up about 70 basis points. The fixed
income total went from $69.7-m to $70.22-m. This is in keeping with what has
been happening in the bond market and this is encouraging because we have ?the
wind at our backs both in terms of fixed income, for the moment, and in terms
of equities.? Equities is where things have been happening. If you refer to
the growth managers on the first page, you will see that the combined growth
managers went from $24.2-m to 25.4-m or an increase of 5%. That is a huge
one-month move and you will see that is the story throughout all these
managers. That is unsustainable and can?t continue, but it is a very good
showing. The value managers were up about $1.5-m for a total of 4.9%, almost
5% , return for the 30 days. Of the core managers, those that manage for both
growth and value, National Asset Management who will be presenting today,
actually had the best return of any mangers, being up 6.6%. The combination of
the core managers was up 5.9%. Once again these are absolutely wonderful
returns over a very short period of time. The international manager was up
almost 5%, going from $8.2-m to $8.6-m. Where did it all happen in the last 30
days? It happened in equities. The total bottom line is up $5-m. If we could
do that every month, we would be doing very well. The total portfolio
increased 3.2% over the 30 day period, probably just about in line with the
market place. This is just great and for the moment, the most important thing
is that as the stock market has been going up, our money managers have been
participating in that rise and bringing value to the portfolio.
A copy of the evaluation report and the other reports are maintained by the
Board Secretary in the Finance Director=s Office and is available for review
upon request.
PRESENTATION BY INVESCO-NAM
Henry introduced the presenters and stated that 3 years ago we conducted a
search to add a core manager to the current core manager, Trusco Capital. We
did an extensive search to find the manager and at the end of the day we ended
up with 2 finalists to come in and interview to be our core manager. It was
Invesco Capital out of Atlanta and National Asset Management out of Louisville,
Kentucky. We had reached the point where we felt like either one of these
could do an excellent job for us. We hired Invesco, probably due to proximity,
and a year later Invesco and National Asset Management merged. As a result of
that merger, National took over this portion of our account and has been
managing it ever since.
David Chick, Portfolio Manager and George Rue, Product Manager, Invesco made a
report to the Board. George Rue stated that it had been a year since they had
come down to make a report to the Board and since that time the market has
better news for us, and they have better news for us.
The report followed in the format listed below:
INVESCO-NAM
Stable organization in business since 1979
Currently manage $19-billion and there have been no departures from the
investment team since 1995 when someone retired. Resources have been added to
the team, but it is the same basic group of people.
Team approach ? the average investment experience of their professionals is
appr. 18 years. Experience is combined with a disciplined investment
philosophy and process which no individual overrides.
CORE MULTIPLE ATTRIBUTE PHILOSOPHY
Charged with blending both value stocks and growth stocks into the
portfolio
It is done by multiple attribute diversification by buying three different
types of stocks: low P/E, yield, and growth
Results in great diversification in the portfolio and over long time periods
these 3 characteristics have on balance out performed the market
Change the weightings depending on the economic environment to keep the
portfolio in sync with what is going on in the economy
This is done in a risk controlled environment by seeking to add value to the
portfolio but in a low risk way
CORE MULTIPLE ATTRIBUTE PROCESS
The base begins by diversifying the portfolio by the 3 different types of stock
attributes. Move up the pyramid by using a computer to narrow the universe and
then do some financial rankings. The security analysis is where the majority
of the time is spent. It is a common sense approach that is used and the
result of that is a portfolio of 50-70 high quality stocks that make up the
core portfolio. When selling a stock, they focus on the same things as when
buying a stock. If one of those breaks down, they take a serious look at it.
If two or more break down, they sell the stock.
PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
The portfolio is up 7.4% since June 30 vs. 3.7% for the index. Now bringing
the calendar year-to-date number up to 16.2% vs. 16% for the S&P. The first
part of the good news is that the market is up after a long doldrums of several
years of down markets. Now we have a fairly consistent up moving market so
those numbers are positive for the portfolio. Their performance relative to
the market has also improved. A lot of that has to do with the positioning
that they have in the portfolio. A year ago, the portfolio was positioned to
benefit from an improving economy. It has been improving since then, but the
market did not really reflect that because the improvement in the economy was
so small. It was not as robust as often happens coming out of a recession.
Since then the economic numbers are improving and people are more optimistic
that it will continue to improve and at a higher rate and therefore, the types
of stocks that they have been buying in the portfolio to benefit from that
improvement have really started going up in price more so than the market has.
Financial stocks have performed better. Technology stocks have performed
better. Industrials and materials stocks have also performed better. The
current attribute weightings are: low P/E stocks are 37% of the portfolio and
those generally do benefit from an improving economy. Yield stocks are down to
23%, which generally do better when the economy is sour and growth stocks do
better when the economy is moving along in a regular growth rate. Growth
stocks are up to 39% so the emphasis is really on stocks that will do well when
the economy does well.
CORE MULTIPLE ATTRIBUTE EQUITY PERFORMANCE
They have a long standing record by using the three stock attributes of working
well not only on a consistent basis against the S&P, but in different types of
market conditions. The left hand graph on page 5 shows the market broken up to
times when value stocks have done well and when growth stocks have done well.
It rotates back and forth. Six out these 7 time periods the blue bar (this
model) have done better than the red bar (S&P). The right hand graph depicts
the last fifteen years of when the market has been up or when the market has
been down. The blue bar (this model) has been ahead of the market when the
market has been up and it has not been as far down when the market is down in
all of those cases. While not perfect, it is designed to work in all sorts of
market conditions and this is why it works well as a core portfolio.
EQUITY CHARACTERISTICS
Graph shows the sector weightings in the portfolio vs. those in the S&P 500.
The S&P defining the broad market place is divided into different economic
sectors for different types of stocks. The emphasis here is in the middle in
the more economically sensitive sector: financials, materials, industrials and
information technology. On the top and bottom are the more defensive sectors:
consumer, energies and telecom and they are underweighted here. The
economically sensitive stocks are working now and can run anywhere from six
months to a year to a couple of years. Depending on what the valuation does of
those stocks and how the earnings come through. A year from now we could be
close to where we are now depending on what happens in the overall economy and
to some of these companies if the rate of growth of the economy starts slowing
back down again then we would probably shift to some more growth oriented
stocks away from the industrials and materials stocks.
EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK
They were underperforming in June as depicted on the chart for the first six
months and one of the reasons was the economically sensitive stocks had not
really kicked in yet. Another reason is that low quality stocks had
outperformed. They on balance are underweighted in low quality stocks. The
return of the S&P is also depicted on the chart and you can see the first six
months of the year at 11.8% and then using S&P Quality Ratings you can see that
the highest rating, A, had the lowest return of 9.4%. It is almost linear as
you move down through the lower quality. Our portfolio was over weighted in
the higher quality by 11%. The chart on the right shows where high quality
stocks vs. the S&P. We are getting to a point where high quality stocks are
fairly inexpensive. This is going in our favor. They measure high quality as
A rated stocks relative to the S&P.
The next chart attempts to answer the question ?Is what we have experienced
since the lows in March just a rally within an overall bear market or the start
of something better?? The down trend has been defined by a channel and we have
broken out of the channel and that is encouraging. There has been a change in
trend and the trend going forward will probably be up. Another fundamental
that they look at is what has happened to the stock market after two
consecutive down years in the market. The chart on the right depicts this.
What happens to the stock market in a major military engagement and what
happens after that. Finally, after a cut in the capital gains rates. All
three of which we have had. You can see that no matter what time period you
use, those events tend to precede a better market and that gives us further
encouragement. Another thing that has been in the headlines lately that causes
investors to become concerned is deflation. The next page shows back from 1926
and broken the inflation rate down into three categories: the center category
is the most stable which is modest deflation minus 1% to modest inflation 3%
and we are in that zone now and have been for a number of years. Generally,
that is good for common stocks. Common stocks have averaged almost 12% a year
during those inflation environments. Whereas, if you raise inflation above 3%
that generally has been bad for stocks and you can see the returns a little
over 1%. What has happened less in modern history, is deflation (falling
prices at a greater than 1% rate). That is also bad for stocks. Right now
inflation is a favorable backdrop for equity returns.
APPENDIX
List of the stocks ordered by attribute as well as new stocks that went into
the portfolio or positions that were closed.
Mr. Chick and Mr. Rue were thanked for the presentation and with no further
questions, they were dismissed from the meeting.
OLD BUSINESS:
Investment Policy Statement Update was discussed and approved ? copies were
distributed to those who did not have theirs with them. Motion was made by Dan
Gray and seconded by Jack Nowell to adopt the changes to the Investment Policy
Statement to reflect changes in the state law.
Mayor Poydasheff requested that copies of the updated Investment Policy
Statement be distributed to the Columbus Council. Mayor Poydasheff requested
that in December, a year-end portfolio valuation report be given by Mr. Swift
to Columbus Council.
NEW BUSINESS:
None
Henry Swift expressed appreciation to Kay Love for her years of service,
thanked her for working well with him and his staff, and closed by wishing her
well.
With no further business for discussion, the motion was made that the meeting
be adjourned.
The next meeting is scheduled for October 1, 2003 at 2:00 p.m. in the Mayor=s
Conference Room. The guest speaker will be from Victory Asset Management
(Value).
_____________________________
Kay Love for Julia A. Rasch
Recording Secretary